Default contagion and systemic risk in loan guarantee networks

This paper studies systemic risk in the Chinese debt market stemming from inter‐corporate loan guarantees using field data from Zhejiang Province. We apply a weighted and directed network model to analyse the implications for default contagion and systemic risk under different stress testing scenarios. The empirical results indicate that the topology of the loan guarantee network is close to a ‘scale‐free’ structure, which is known to be robust against accidental failures but vulnerable to coordinated attacks. Hence, the network is able to cope with idiosyncratic shocks resulting from single company failures, but can easily suffer from more widespread contagion if a group of systemically important companies are hit by a targeted shock. We further demonstrate that within our sample of small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) companies, increasing leverage reduces network stability and exacerbates the effects of contagion. More lenient bank lending policies increase the survival rate of sample companies and thereby reduce the losses from default contagion.     

Tailored versus Mass Produced: Portfolio Managers Concurrently Managing Separately Managed Accounts and Mutual Funds

Using a matched sample of separately managed accounts (SMAs) and mutual funds (MFs) with the same portfolio manager and investment style, we find that concurrently managed MFs consistently underperform their SMA counterparts and generate more negative return gaps. Fund characteristics and liquidity betas fail to fully explain the underperformance. An event‐study analysis finds that the weights placed into top (bottom)‐performing stocks increase for existing SMAs (MFs) and negative return gaps increase for the MFs after the onset of concurrent management. We find that higher compensation collected by SMA fund managers are associated with more unseen managerial actions which positively contribute to the SMA return gap. Our results suggest that when managers concurrently manage both SMAs and MFs, they favor SMA performance over their MF performance.     

Tail mutual exclusivity and Tail-VaR lower bounds

In this paper, we extend the concept of mutual exclusivity proposed by [Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. (1999). The safest dependence structure among risks. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 25, 11–21] to its tail counterpart and baptize this new dependency structure as tail mutual exclusivity. Probability levels are first specified for each component of the random vector. Under this dependency structure, at most one exceedance over the corresponding Value-at-Risks (VaRs) is possible, the other components being zero in such a case. No condition is imposed when all components stay below the VaRs. Several properties of this new negative dependence concept are derived. We show that this dependence structure gives rise to the smallest value of Tail-VaR (TVaR) of a sum of risks within a given Fréchet space, provided that the probability level of the TVaR is close enough to one.     

企业战略预算管理问题初探

企业战略预算管理是以企业战略目标为导向的一种预算管理机制。有效的企业战略应以战略目标为导向,采用滚动预测法,合理配置预算管理资源,并佐以完善的法人治理结构和内部审计制度为实施保障。     

河北省应急物流体系构建研究

大型自然灾害及公共危机事件会造成严重的社会影响和巨大的经济损失,应急物流体系的建设是有效预防及降低危害的措施之一。在分析河北省应急物流体系现状及存在问题的基础上,从指挥体系、物资储备、保障平台等方面构建河北省应急物流体系,并提出了相应的保障措施和政策建议。     

基础设施BOT项目中的政府担保与最优特许期

为了吸引国内外财团、公司企业,以及个人等非政府投资主体投资于中国基础设施项目建设,政府必须对投资者无法通过市场行为进行控制的非市场风险因素提供担保。本文在分析基础设施项目政府担保行为的基础上,将政府担保价值引入特许期谈判博弈模型,分析政府担保对最优特许期决策的影响,并为政府特许期决策提供政策建议。     

中小企业融资担保模式构想——以成都市为例

融资难已经成为制约中小企业发展的一大桎梏,成为中小企业发展的瓶颈。融资担保和小额贷款行业的发展,对中小企业融资难的问题起到了缓解作用,融资担保创新是解决中小企业贷款难问题的重要突破口。经过数年的探索发展、不断创新,成都融资担保在创新担保产品、运作模式、规范服务和融资担保机制等方面取得较大突破,形成了特有的"成都模式",先后被国务院中小企业领导小组办公室作为经验向全国推广。     

苏北航务处船闸应急保障中心仓储管理解决方案

文章介绍的仓储方案主要采用条码/RFID电子标签技术,结合ERP可视化数据库软件,形成一套对入库、移库、盘点、出库进行全方位和全程的可视化跟踪的条形码/RFID仓库管理系统。     

解析温州民间借贷

当前温州民间借贷"已经到了疯狂的地步",一旦某个环节出现问题,可能导致"多米诺骨牌"效应,最后使实体经济受到重大影响。国家银根收紧,实业制造业不景气,越来越多缺钱的企业将目光转向了民间借贷,从而抬高了利率水平,高息诱惑下,不少原本投资于实业的资本开始向金融衍生品市场转移。     

人与生态文明的马克思主义视域

马克思主义认为,人是自然生态系统的一部分,与自然密不可分,并在整个社会发展过程中与自然时刻发生着各种各样的关系,成为人类生命和文化传承的重要基础。人的发展离不开自然,同时人的发展过程又对自然产生着重要的影响。人的全面发展是社会经济发展的最终目的,人与自然和谐是人全面发展的基础;人在发展的过程中对自然索取、享受并损害着自然环境和资源;反过来,自然资源的束缚、环境污染和生态破坏又制约了人的自由发展。为了实现人的自由全面发展,必须尊重、爱护自然。生态文明反过来成为人的全面自由发展的物质基础。